Well…I hate to say that I told you so…but I will   As many of you remember, I was buying Silver a couple of years back (Investing in Silver) and it has turned out to be quite a strong investment!

The question now is, at $50 per ounce, is it time to sell my silver holdings and lock in significant profits?

I have a history of selling at the completely wrong time!  Recent Example:

Bought Apple @ $87 per share in about Nov. 2008, and sold it at $175…just to see it rocket to $350 about a year later.

Is silver going to do the same thing to me that Apple stock did?

All the reasons I was buying Silver in 2008 seem to still be in place.  For example, our government continues to print money and kill the value of dollars at an alarming rate!  And I suspect they will continue to do that, as the best way to pay off down our $15 Trillion of dollar denominated debt is to significantly lower the value of US dollars…which means Silver could keep running up.

Anyways, I’d appreciate the input of the financial wizards who visit this blog, so PLEASE, let me know what you think!

This sounds crazy doesn’t it?  Why would a reputable firm hire so many people knowing full well that the majority of them would be gone in two years or less?  TRAIL COMMISSIONS?

Several other reps told me that often financial services companies are happy when a rep leaves, because the company no longer has to pay them yearly commissions on the products that were sold in the past.  I don’t know if this is the case or not, but the whole recruiting process seemed like a whole lot of work to only keep 2 or 3 out of 20 recruits.

ANYWAYS, I tell my story because I know several Edward Jones reps, and from the outside looking in, Jones seems nothing like the company I mentioned above.  Everyone I observe that works at Edward Jones seems to be doing fairly well…nice office, assistant and great marketing.

The reason I ask the above question though is because last year someone I know personally, and considered an extremely successful Edward Jones adviser, was let go from the company for what seemed like a minor misunderstanding. Of course I don’t know all the details, and have never worked for Edward Jones, but I’m interested to know if anyone out there who is reading this blog post has had any similar experiences with Edward Jones.  I’m interested in any feedback on how they treat their reps!

Well, I’m about to find out if a good idea and great partners is enough of a foundation in the iPhone Application development world to make for a good investment.

This week, I’ve funded the development of an exciting new iPhone app.  The app is a productivity tool for moms and dads, and is “top secret”!

I admit, I know little to nothing about iPhone applications, but when a good idea rips you out of bed at 4:00 in the morning, the entrepreneur in me has to pay attention.  I’m truly excited to keep you all informed, and to consistently blog about the progress and performance of developing and marketing a new idea for the iPhone App Store…and please don’t hesitate to pipe in if you have some insight or perspective!

Most interesting to me was a chart that showed current Gold, Silver, Platinum, etc. prices today (at record highs) and then compare them to “inflation adjusted” 1980 prices.

What the chart leads you to believe is that when you take inflation into consideration, precious metals may still have significantly more upside potential, especially if you believe that the current economic environment is similar to the environment in 1980.

I’m extremely intrigued by precious metals…and rare coins for that matter.  I’ve written quite extensively about Silver Investing as you may know, and have recently invested a significant amount of money into Natural Gas when it was around $3 a MCF.

Anywho…please pipe in on Gold, your opinions do matter to me…as in the case of Natural Gas, your feedback helps direct my actions.  That is what this blog is all about!

And BTW, I still have not decided on a vehicle.  I’m leaning towards the Ford Taurus, but am waiting until they are available with about $2500 in rebates that I can take advantage of.  They currently DO offer $2500 in rebates, but you can only get access to $1500 of those dollars if you have a competitors lease.  Unfortunatly, I own competitior vehicles, but OWN them, don’t lease them at this time.  I will keep you posted.

It seems like most commodities, the laws of supply and demand are determining the price of Natty Gas.  I’m currently reading that stockpiles are nearly 19% above their 5 year average, and that demand is down.  BUT WHY SUCH A DRAMATIC FALL?

That is where I see opportunity.  I believe that the stick has swung WAY too bearish on natural gas, and that these current depressed levels create a buying opportunity.  Yesterday I took a bit of IRA money and pumped it into the natural gas market, hoping that over the next 18 months we are able to see a much more historically normal spread between the price of oil and natural gas.  Oil traditionally and historically trades around 8 times the price of natural gas (give or take a bit).  CURRENTLY OIL IT IS TRADING AT 24 TIMES THE PRICE OF NATURAL GAS, and I don’t believe this will be sustained. 

With the current President being bent towards this idea of “cap & trade” I believe that more and more producers of electricity and going to turn to natural gas more and more as a way to offset their coal fired plants.  We will see though!

Just my two cents, I would love someone with some knowledge or a strong opinion on the subject to weigh in!  Hopefully soon, before I commit more hard dollars to my Natural Gas theories!

Anyways, I think it is important to open up a discussion with all you smart folks about HOW AND WHY the US stock market has been on suck a tear over the past couple of months.  If you made some good decisions 3 or 4 months ago, your investments are probably up 50% or more!

IF you believe that the US stock market is a “leading indicator” for the US economy, this run in the market would lead you to the conclusion that we are heading out of “The Great Recession” post haste…THE TROUBLE I have with this theory is that our home values are still falling, so the US consumer is feeling a negative “wealth effect”…also stunting our growth is the fundamental shift from consumption to savings.  I believe that most sensible people are going to save more and keep real tabs on their spending habits. 

I also fear that mutual fund managers have been chasing returns, and this is artificially pushing up stock prices ahead of the actual earnings growth of these companies.  (I hope I’m wrong though and that good companies were just SOOOO oversold that we are getting back to fair value)

All this to be said, I’m loving the run up in stock market values, but I’m worried that the market is getting ahead of its self and banking on a sharp uptick in the overall US economies growth and consumer spending. 

Do you guys really think that is going to be the case, or are we looking at a major pullback soon?  Will $3.00 gas pull us back down?  As always, any and all feedback and ideas are appreciated.  There is SO much knowledge left in the comments of this blog!

I purchased 15 companies over at Fristrade.  As of today, nine of them have lost money, five of them have made money…but my account is sitting at almost EXACTLY the $15,000 that I started with…so I’m flat overall.  That is ok, as I am generally investing for the next 4-6 years.  I did this in late 2002, andby 2007 my original $10,000 investment in stocks had quadrupled.  I liquidated around the time when the Dow Hit 13,000.  (I originally had thought I’d made a horrible decision as the Dow continued to climb past 14,000…but I stuck to my guns and did not get hammered in this market.)

So like I said, I tested the waters with $15,000 about 6 months ago.  My best RETURN was a 1 week trade on National City stock.  I bought in at $1.80 per share, and about a week later sold for over $3.00 a share. 

BUT MY BEST INVESTMENT HAS TO BE AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC. (AEO)

American Eagle is up 41.14% since I purchased it.  Same store sales are down at AEO, but not terrible.  I was a teenager once, I remember saving all my money to buy clothes.  (We really seem to care about clothing here in America, don’t we)  The company has next to zero debt, and almost $500 Million cash on its balance sheet.  It is also highly profitable.  I think as the economy softens, they do better than companies like Abercrombie & Finch…because the products is similar in style, very similar, but at a considerable value.  That has been a winning combination for my portfolio!

2nd best investment…APPLE COMPUTER STOCK…UP 17.54%

Again, I’m not offering specific investment advice, just letting you know what I’m up to.  Please seek professional advice when making any type of investment.  For informational purposes only!  Amen.

Photo Credit: http://www.eightsolid.com

In June of 2003 I opened my first franchised pizza store here in Michigan. I went into partnership with my best friend from college. We had worked for 18 months planning our business, finding the perfect location, learning about the pizza business (him a lot more than me, as he went through the training program), etc. Our timing could not have been better! We opened with a bang, were having a lot of fun, and making some pretty good money too.

FAST FORWARD A COUPLE OF YEARS…Me and that same partner have now purchased a 2nd pizza store franchise from a struggling franchisee. We have went into partnership with his father on two sandwich shops and a “Starbucks type” coffee franchise…(but much cooler than Starbucks!) ANYWAYS…My partner lost interest in the pizza business. He was married now and the late hours sucked for him (besides, he was a morning person anyways…he loves to get up at 4:30 AM to go bass fishing, crazy, I know!) This love for the morning made the coffee business a perfect fit for him, but the bottom line is that the pizza stores were going down hill and he wanted out.

In 2005 my younger brother and I bought him out of the two pizza franchises, and my brother took over the day to day operations of the stores. He was just out of college, and had no trouble putting in the long and late hours of the pizza game. In less than a year, sales were up 20% at our original store, and 40% at the second store that we purchased. They were highly profitable again and life was good.

In 2007 we were approached by another franchisee who owned 3 pizza stores in Michigan. He wanted to buy our stores. He paid a lot less than we had originally wanted, but we eventually sold him the stores and walked away with a nice profit. This franchisee now had 5 pizza stores in Michigan. I don’t know the story, or what happened, but that guy who bought our pizza stores closed up all 5 of his stores about a year later. Which leads me back to the title of this “long winded” post…Is a Pizza Franchise a Good Investment? THE ANSWER, IT DEPENDS!

In the town I live in, we have seen about 10 pizza stores close over the past two years.  I believe this is directly related to the $5 Little Caesars “Hot N Ready” Pizza.  It is hard to compete with a OK pizza for $5 in Michigan, even if you are selling a GREAT pizza for only $10.00.  Little Caesars has changed the industry here in Michigan for sure, and probably in other states too.  So in the Mid West today, I would be very cautious about investing in a pizza franchise! 

Depending on where you live though, population density, competition, average age, and number of households…a pizza business can be very fun and profitable.  You REALLY have to do your homework though.  There is TONS of data that needs to be sifted through in determining if any restaurant will be successful in a given town.  I’ve developed a system to try to figure that out.  If you are ever considering a franchised restaurant, zip me an e-mail, and I will try to help if I can!

Happy Easter! -B

This word is all my little brain could register when I pulled up my retirement account at Firstrade today.

I’ve been a licensed securities broker for almost 9 years now, and I NEVER saw this coming. 

Buy and Hold index fund investing is officially a TRAIN WRECK if you started in about the last 12 years or so.  I’M REALLY GLAD for all those variable annuities that I sold between 2003 and 2007…as most of them had GUARANTEES attached to them that may end up being EXTREMELY VALUABLE TO HAVE!

I HAVE NO ANSWER to my title question, and no one else does either.  As a student of history and economics, I know this type of market meltdown has happened before, but the variables are so different now.  And don’t turn on CNBC, because that will just give you a headache.  They will have “experts” on their shows back to back who will completely contradict each other.  Both, probably very smart people, are understanding our current economic realities in TOTALLY different ways.  BRIGHT SPOT THOUGH…MOST EVERYONE SEEMS TO BELIEVE IN THE LONG TERM SUCCESS OF CAPITALISM AND OF THE UNITED STATES!

I DON’T think that it is a foregone conclusion that our country is headed for a “depression.”  A depression in economic terms is loosely defined as a countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropping by about 10% or more in a given year.  WHAT I MEAN by GDP is the total value of all goods, services, and investments spend by EVERYONE…individuals, businesses, and governments…in a given year.  The GDP of the Untied States of American as just under $14 Trillion last year. 

HERE IS WHY I’m Concerned…

Our country has survived economic downturns in the past, many times in fact.  This one is different though in my opinion.  The reason is this:  Individual Americans and our Federal Government has a CRUSHING AMOUNT OF DEBT that is growing bigger and bigger every day.  The interest alone that we must someday pay on our national debt is growing rapidly and is currently estimated at $45,000 PER SECOND!!!

I read recently that 80% of Americans would potentially be bankrupt and homeless if they simply missed 2 PAYCHECKS!

The reason for this is because of the huge mortgages, auto loans, failed business loans, student loans, credit card loans, etc. that we are all required to make huge payments on each month.  AND ALMOST NONE OF US HAS AN EMERGENCY FUND that would last more than two months. 

SO WHAT CAN YOU DO?

• Stop spending your money like the village idiot!  American currently save less than 2% of their yearly earnings! 
• Quit going to the mall every time you are bored!
• Build an emergency fund!  Do this with the dollars you are not blowing at the mall.
• Buy JUNK SILVER COINS.  Do this with about 25% of your emergency fund.  Silver has proved to be a good store of value for thousands of years.
• Get rid of unnecessary debt.  And do this as soon as possible.  If you just bought an ATV and took a 12% interest loan…sell that sucker, and get that debt off your back!
• But conserve cash too!  It can be unwise in uncertain times to spend every penny of cash you have to par down your debt.  This is where the concept of EMERGENCY FUND is important!
• Stock up on some food with very long shelf life!  I’m not trying to alarm you, but if you understand the gravity of the numbers I’m just shared with you, some extra food in the basement seems attractive.
• Keep having faith and working hard!  With all the doom and gloom out there, I still believe in power much bigger than ourselves and our economic worries.  Keep focused on ALL THE GOOD BLESSINGS in your life, because they are abundant, even through our struggles.  Just look at the birds outside, they don’t seem to worry where their next meal will come from…and aren’t us people more important than the birds?  I believe we are!